A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
